MEDIA RELEASE PR38068
CSM Worldwide Sees Higher Vehicle Sales and Production in Japan in 2010
TOKYO, Jan. 28 /PRNewswire-AsiaNet/ --
Vehicle sales in Japan are forecasted to grow 4 percent in 2010 as government stimulus programs continue
to prop up demand, according to automotive forecasting firm CSM Worldwide.
"Consumer sentiment remains depressed in Japan, but the new car market
entered a recovery phase in the second half of 2009 as the government's
eco-car tax cut policy and scrappage incentive programs gathered momentum,"
said Yoshiaki Kawano, Japan/Korea sales forecast analyst. "The government's
recent decision to extend the scrappage program through September, combined
with stronger economic fundamentals, will help drive full-year sales modestly
higher."
Light Vehicle Sales (millions) 2009 2010
Japan 4.5 4.7
YOY % Change -7.4% +4.0%
Momentum in the second half of 2009 was driven by a recovery in the sales
of sub-compact and compact cars, especially fuel-efficient vehicles such as
the Toyota Prius, Lexus HS and Honda Insight hybrids, and low-emissions
vehicles such as the Honda FIT, Honda Freed and Toyota Vitz.
The success of these vehicles in such a difficult market reflects the
availability of incentives and the defensive mood of consumers and their
growing concerns for the environment. Minicars, by contrast, are eligible for
fewer subsidies and have lost momentum in the market - a trend that is
expected to continue until the scrappage programs end.
The hardest-hit segment in 2009 was imported vehicles, which account for
about 4 percent of total sales, because most of them were not eligible for
incentives. Although dealers have tried to address this situation with
marketing campaigns and U.S.-built vehicles are now eligible for the
scrappage program, import sales are forecasted to remain stagnant.
Production Volumes Start to Recover
The simultaneous collapse of domestic and export demand in 2009 drove a
30 percent decline in production to 7.5 million units. But vehicle production
in Japan will begin to recover this year, and should reach 8.6 million units,
an increase of 15 percent, according to CSM's forecast.
Domestic demand will continue to be supported by the scrappage incentive
and the eco-car tax break. Export demand, primarily from North America, will
recover beginning in the second half of 2010.
"Considering that domestic demand will have little chance to grow to more
than 5 million units, Japanese production will still depend highly on
exports," said Masatoshi Nishimoto, Japan/Korea production forecast manager.
Light Vehicle Production (millions) 2009 2010
Japan 7.5 8.6
YOY % Change -29.9% +14.7%
The recovery in domestic production could be hurt by the large amount of
open capacity that exists among the Japanese OEMs in North America.
"In 2009, capacity utilization dropped 50 percent among Japanese OEMs in
North America," said Nishimoto. "We expect that they will utilize their open
capacity in North America first to meet local demand."
Over the next few years, CSM expects to see Japanese OEMs emphasize
hybrid and electric vehicles as one way to support domestic production.
In 2012, production of hybrid vehicles (HEVs), which is dominated by
Toyota and Honda, is expected to reach 1.5 million units in Japan or about 70
percent of global hybrid production volume.
While Toyota will localize Prius production in the United States and
Auris production in Europe, the company's HEV production volume in Japan will
reach one million units in 2012. Over the next few years, Toyota plans to
introduce HEVs into a variety of segments, with different body types and
price points.
Honda, meanwhile, is developing a new hybrid system in larger vehicles,
which will be produced only in Japan.
"We believe it is very important for Honda to be successful in the
production of these hybrid vehicles, not only to compete with the Prius in
the global market, but also to secure domestic production volume," said
Kawano.
Nissan, Mitsubishi and Fuji Heavy Industries will lead the electric
vehicle (EV) market. Nissan in particular will accelerate EV production in
2010 to supply the global market. CSM expects output of the Nissan Leaf to
reach 20,000-30,000 units per year through 2012.
"Right now the EV market is facing difficult issues with high-cost
batteries, cruising distance and infrastructures, but we expect the EV market
to grow in the short term," said Kawano.
Toyota will have an opportunity to utilize EV technologies from Fuji
Heavy Industries. Mitsubishi, meanwhile, has invested its limited resources
in EV technology and will supply the i-MiEV electric vehicle to PSA and other
OEMs globally.
About CSM Worldwide
CSM Worldwide provides trusted automotive market forecasting services and
strategic advisory solutions to the world's top automotive manufacturers,
suppliers and financial organizations. CSM Worldwide covers the global
automotive environment from Detroit, Grand Rapids, São Paulo, London, Paris,
Frankfurt, New Delhi, Bangkok, Shanghai, Seoul and Tokyo.
SOURCE: CSM Worldwide
CONTACT: Masatoshi Nishimoto,
masatoshinishimoto@csmauto.com, or
Yoshiaki Kawano,
yoshiakikawano@csmauto.com,
+81 3 5212 3091
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